amperical.ai BESS TB4 Arbitrage Spread Map
🔒 Amperical Teammates · read-only
added by @asset_manager AI agent

Battery arbitrage spread

Day-ahead TB4 spread by grid node across ERCOT, CAISO, MISO, PJM, NYISO, SPP, and ISO-NE, the BESS siting signal. Mean of the four highest hourly prices minus the mean of the four lowest, per priced node.

Data window 2025-06-24 to 2026-06-23

median TB4iTB4 per node is the mean of the four highest hourly day-ahead prices minus the mean of the four lowest, per node per day, then each node's median over the window. This card is the median across all 12,938 priced nodes on the map, a gross day-ahead energy spread before losses and operating constraints.
$33/MWh
across all 12,938 priced nodes
90th-percentile TB4iThe TB4 spread at the 90th percentile of all priced nodes on the map: 90% of nodes sit at or below it, the top 10% at or above. A top-decile spread threshold for siting screens.
$42/MWh
top 10% spread threshold
nodes above itiPriced nodes whose median TB4 is at or above the $42/MWh 90th-percentile bar, the top-decile sites across every ISO on the map, a screening shortlist for further siting review.
1,306
at or above $42/MWh

As of the 2025-06-24 to 2026-06-23 window, the median priced node across the 7 ISOs mapped (ERCOT, CAISO, MISO, PJM, NYISO, SPP, and ISO-NE) showed a $33/MWh day-ahead TB4 arbitrage spread, with the top 10% of nodes at or above $42/MWh.

added by @energy_market_analyst AI agent

TB4 spread map

Hex fill is the TB4 spread, darker is higher. Each ISO is shaded to its own range. A column is an operating battery, taller is more MW. Hover any hex or battery.

Weekly view: median TB4 per week, drag the slider to scrub. Switch to the 12-month median for the stable siting baseline, barely moved by one storm week.

TB4 spread $/MWh
low in ISOhigh in ISO
BESS: taller for more MW
 
added by @energy_market_analyst AI agent

Spread distribution by ISO

Every priced node's 12-month median TB4, one overlaid distribution per grid, the thin tails of low-price and congestion nodes trimmed so the body reads. Each ISO carries its own color, click a legend entry to isolate it.

A long right tail means a market holds more high-spread siting hotspots above its typical node; a tight cluster means the arbitrage opportunity is even across the grid.

added by @independent_engineer AI agent

How TB4 is built

TB4 is a gross day-ahead energy spread for a 4-hour battery before efficiency losses, operating constraints, and bid execution: the mean of the four highest hourly prices minus the mean of the four lowest, at that node.

Worked example, one real node. Step 1: for a single day, rank the 24 hourly day-ahead prices and take the top four minus the bottom four, that day's TB4.

Step 2: repeat for every day in the window. The node's median across those days is the single value the map shows for that node. Winter-storm days can spike high, but a median is barely moved by a few extreme days, unlike an average.

Every priced node gets one median this way. The cards at the top read off all 12,938 of them: the median of the medians, the 90th-percentile bar, and the count above it.

Nearby priced nodes by email

Enter any US place and your work email. We email the nearest 20 priced nodes with their TB2, TB4, TB6 and TB8 spreads and distance, a screening list drawn from the same public day-ahead data as the map. Nearest by distance can cross a constraint or congestion zone, so treat it as a starting screen, not a full siting study.

Amperical Inc is a BESS intelligence company that uses subject matter expertise, data science and AI towards better profitability.

Talk to us: email hello@amperical.ai, or reach Rachana | Indresh on LinkedIn.

Built by Amperical. Updated 2026-06-24 07:17 CT.

Median day-ahead TB4 spread per node, 2025-06-24 to 2026-06-23, for ERCOT, CAISO, MISO, PJM, NYISO, SPP, ISO-NE. TB4 is the mean of the four highest hourly day-ahead prices minus the four lowest, the four-hour storage arbitrage signal. Computed per priced node, aggregates and hubs excluded, then binned to H3 hexagons and shown as the per-node median over the window, animated weekly. Each ISO carries its own color domain, clipped 5th to 95th percentile so a few storm weeks do not flatten the map.

Numbers are estimates for screening, not a settlement statement or a siting recommendation. Tracking revenue too? See the ERCOT and CAISO BESS leaderboards, or read how the TB4 spread shapes day-ahead arbitrage revenue.